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Black Swans and Grey Rhinos

Kevin S. recently shared a post that called out two different types of unexpected change – “Black Swans” and “Grey Rhinos”

"Black swan events are correctly described as highly improbable, with catastrophic impact.”

Grey Rhinos may precede a Black Swan

I constantly post about the need for organisations to have a solid front door and prepare for the unexpected.

What I like about the concept of “Grey Rhinos” is that it gives us a method to expect the unexpected, because these are warning signs staring at you right in the face that you still have a chance to address before they finally (and painfully) slap you in the face.

The article (link here: ) Kevin shares cites Crown’s licence issues, and the Optus & Medibank’s cyber security issues as “Black Swan” events, but also demonstrates that the “Grey Rhino” warning signs were loud and clear…. and ignored.

There are warning signs everywhere. Have you spotted them?


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